New Zealand First MP Andrew Williams, Greens MP Julie Anne Genter, Labour MP Clare Curran and Dr Joe Atkinson from the University of Auckland. Photo: Alex Perrottet/PMC

Pacific Scoop:
Report – By Alex Perrottet of Pacific Media Watch

The New Zealand government’s reasons for cutting funding to Television NZ have been “rubbished” at a public meeting in Auckland last night.

Members of Parliament and about 300 members of the public met at the Freemans Bay Community Hall and stood as a white coffin displaying the epitaph “Public service television” and draped with a New Zealand Flag was carried in.

Labour MP Clare Curran said the last Labour government invested $79 million in the new channels TVNZ 6 and 7. She said they were important, taking the country into the digital environment.

“On 30 June, TVNZ7 will be switched off by a National government,” she said.

She cited the arguments given for the closure of TVNZ7; that there is public funding through NZ On Air, that no one watches it and those who watch it are part of some sort of elite.

“All those arguments are rubbish, absolute rubbish.”

NZ can afford more
“We can easily, easily afford it and easily find ways for paying for much more.”

"We can afford much more"... Dr Joe Atkinson from the University of Auckland. Photo: Alex Perrottet/PMC

Curran compared New Zealand with the UK, which invested $4.6 billion in the BBC, and Australia, which put $200 million into the ABC and recently announced in the federal budget it would invest $85 million more in SBS.

“They put a value on public broadcasting. This government doesn’t.”

She said her private member’s bill would save the channel, if it happened to be chosen from the ballot.

“Let’s not have our kids grow up on American television shows, with American accents. Let’s not have our television stations filled up with reality shows.”

Authentic Kiwi culture
She said New Zealand needed more shows that were “thoughtful, quirky and originally Kiwi”. She called for more people such as Wallace Chapman with creativity.

“Let’s fund it properly and be proud of who we are.”

Greens MP Julie Anne Genter said the best of all the great historical works of literature and art were not created and defined by commercial interests.

She pointed out the growing danger of the small number of corporations that controlled the global media market, and that the support of public broadcasting would encourage and stimulate citizen participation in democracy.

‘Get NZ thinking’
Andrew Williams, NZ First MP, reminisced about the NZBC and the great shows of the past.

“We did get good political debate going in this country, we did have proper investigative journalism on our screens,” he said.

“Who wants to see another cooking programme? Who wants to see another border patrol programme? Who wants to see another police chase programme?”

He said we need programmes that “get New Zealanders thinking”, saying it was a small price to pay for such an important outcome as a good thinking population.

The public filled the Freemans Bay Community Centre and contributed to the discussion. Photo: Alex Perrotet/PMC

Dr Atkinson proposed a 1 percent levy on pay TV and telecommunications providers, which he argued would pay for Radio New Zealand, Māori TV, TVNZ7 and more.

He said those companies would pass on that cost to their customers, who were already paying much more for Sky which they did not watch as much as their free-to-air channels anyway.

‘Rewrite NZ On Air’
He also said it was imperative that the government rewrite the brief of NZ  On Air, so that it is insulated from commercial pressures on funding.

From the floor came all kinds of comments, but none as outspoken as Daniel McCaffrey who suggested the government sell off TV2 to support TVNZ7 and other public broadcasting investments.

The organiser of the event, Myles Thomas, apologised on behalf of the government which was “too busy” to attend the meeting. He read out a response from the Minister of Broadcasting Craig Foss.

The SaveTVNZ group is holding other meetings around the country. Their website is here: www.issues.co.nz/savetvnz7/

Alex Perrottet is contributing editor of Pacific Media Watch

The public broadcasting coffin is brought in by the public service 'undertakers'. Photo: Alex Perrottet/PMC

A previous demonstration in support of West Papuan independence in Port Vila in 2010. Photo: ASAP/PMW

Pacific Scoop:
Special Report – By Johnny Blades of Radio New Zealand International

About 24 people have been arrested in Vanuatu’s capital Port Vila after staging a protest against the arrival of an Indonesian military aircraft.

The Hercules aircraft was reportedly carrying assistance equipment for next month’s Port Vila meeting between African Caribbean and Pacific (ACP) countries and the European Union.

Protesters said the arrival of Indonesian officials and military personnel in the country was unacceptable given the longstanding support of ni-Vanuatu for West Papuan self-determination.

Radio NZI's Johnny Blades on assignment. Photo: RNZI

Under a recently signed co-operation agreement, Indonesia will provide police and paramilitary training to Vanuatu which in turn is to refrain from getting involved in the West Papua issue.

West Papuan leaders living in exile in Vanuatu have called on the government to reconsider its foreign policy in regard to Indonesia.

Indonesia last year became an observer of the Melanesian Spearhead Group (MSG), which includes Vanuatu.

In view of the Papuans’ plight over the years, the West Papua National Coalition for Liberation’s John Ondawame said Vanuatu should revisit its dealings with Jakarta.

 ’Brutal regime’
“We firmly believe that the Vanuatu government signed a cooperation agreement with a very brutal regime in the Asia Pacific region that killed thousands of my people in West Papua,” he said.

Among those arrested at the airport protest yesterday was the West Papuan Andy Ayamiseba.

Speaking on the issue from the police holding cell, he described to Radio New Zealand International the arrangement with Indonesia as a mockery.

“Simply talking we say what interest is there for Indonesia in Vanuatu? There is no market for trading. It’s to silence Vanuatu on the issue of West Papua, that’s all. That’s all that Indonesia is interested in Vanuatu, nothing else.”

The arrival of the Indonesian military aircraft comes just days after the Kilman government expelled Australian Federal Police (AFP) from Vanuatu.

The Foreign Minister Alfred Carlot said Vanuatu can survive without Australia’s assistance, saying it had new donors, such as Indonesia.

Meanwhile, Andy Ayamiseba questioned the suitability of police training from a military force with a poor human rights record.

Last on list
“If there is any such force to train Vanuatu police, Indonesia should be the last on the list. These people, they’re committing atrocities on other Melanesian people. So the excuse of kicking the AFP out was to have the Indonesian military and police to come in here?”

An opposition MP, Sela Molisa, said the people of Vanuatu were very strongly against the co-operation deal.

“The government can get assistance from anywhere including Indonesia. But people have different opinion from the government. In as far as the NGOs and members of the public are concerned, they do not agree with the government making any deals with Indonesia, that’s in opposition to the situation in West Papua,” he said.

Molisa witnessed the arrests and has condemned police and government over them.

He said people had the right to express themselves and that no permit was required for holding banners in a peaceful way at the airport.

Source: Radio NZ International | 7945 Pacific Media Watch

The Governor-General, Lt Gen The Rt Hon Sir Jerry Mateparae, is to visit Timor-Leste to mark the 10th anniversary of Southeast Asian nation’s independence.
16 May 2012
Media Release – Government House
Governor-General to visit Timor-Leste for independence celebrations

The Governor-General, Lt Gen The Rt Hon Sir Jerry Mateparae, is to visit Timor-Leste to mark the 10th anniversary of Southeast Asian nation’s independence.

Sir Jerry Mateparae will be greeted in Dili on May 19 with a State Welcome at the Presidential Palace and a meeting with outgoing President, HE Dr José Ramos-Horta.

He will then meet New Zealanders living in Dili at a gathering at the New Zealand Embassy before attending the swearing in ceremony of newly elected President, Taur Matan Ruak that evening.

The following day Sir Jerry Mateparae will attend the Timor-Leste Independence Day celebrations and flag raising ceremony at the Presidential Palace and hold bilateral discussions with the new President, HE Taur Matan Ruak, Prime Minister, HE Xanana Gusmão and the President of Parliament, HE Fernando La Sama de Araújo. He will also witness the signing of an agreement on community policing between Timor-Leste and New Zealand.

Sir Jerry said the visit reflected the warm and friendly relationship between New Zealand and Timor-Leste.

“New Zealand has been by Timor-Leste’s side since soon after the 1999 referendum on independence, providing troops to the Australian-led INTERFET force that halted the violence that followed, while providing essential humanitarian relief before independence was formalised on 20 May 2002.

“Since that time, thousands of New Zealanders from the military, police and many other government and non-government organisations, have served there, helping the Timorese people build their young nation. New Zealand is committed to continuing to support Timor-Leste as the focus of assistance moves from security to education and business and trade development.”

Sir Jerry has strong ties to Timor-Leste. He was Joint Commander for New Zealand forces (1999-2001) in Timor-Leste at the time of its independence and later, as Chief of the New Zealand Defence Force, he visited in November 2008 and September 2010.

While the Governor-General is overseas from 19-21 May, the Chief Justice, Rt Hon Dame Sian Elias, will serve as Administrator of the Government.
ends

Content Sourced from scoop.co.nz
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Researchers are using cutting-edge techniques never used before in New Zealand to establish the history of ancient earthquakes around the Port Hills.New scientific techniques used to investigate Port Hills rock falls

Researchers are using cutting-edge techniques never used before in New Zealand to establish the history of ancient earthquakes around the Port Hills.

University of Canterbury Rutherford Foundation post-doctoral fellowship recipient Dr Ben Mackey is investigating the fault that was previously unknown before the 22 February quake. The work is being done in collaboration with UC geologists Dr Mark Quigley and Dr Ben Kennedy.

“The idea behind the research is to try and find evidence of ancient earthquakes of similar intensity to the series we had last year,” he says.

“At present there is little constraint on how frequently the faults near Banks Peninsula rupture. I am going to try and find out how regularly they have ruptured in past major earthquakes, so that we may be more informed of when it could happen again.”

Dr Mackey says that because the Port Hills fault is hidden beneath Banks Peninsula and the Canterbury Plains, rather than exposed on the surface like the Greendale fault, he will need non-traditional techniques to ascertain the timing of previous earthquakes.

“Normally when a geologist tries to determine the timing of old earthquakes there is a fault that ruptures the ground where we can see the physical fault structure, trench across it, and work out when past events happened. But the fault that caused the 22 February quake is blind, meaning it did not propagate to the surface. This means we have to look for secondary evidence of ancient earthquakes, such as rock falls, rather than study the actual fault plane.”

Dr Mackey, who was awarded $190,000 to conduct the research, will painstakingly date boulders around the Port Hills to discover the timing of ancient rock falls, similar to those that occurred over the past year.

“The technique we are using is called cosmogenic nuclide exposure dating, and it’s never been applied in New Zealand on basalt, the rock type that forms Banks Peninsula. We collect surface samples from rock fall boulders, crush them up and extract small olivine crystals from the basalt. We can measure the concentration of the isotope helium-3 on a mass spectrometer,” he says. “The amount of helium in the crystals reflects how long the boulder has been sitting on the surface.”

“When a rock is exposed to the sky, it gets bombarded with cosmic rays, which cause small nuclear reactions in atoms within the rock. The by-products if these reactions (such as helium-3) accumulate in olivine crystals at a predictable rate, enabling calculation of the rock exposure age. Put simply, we are basically working out the sun tan of a rock, in order to figure out how long it has been lying in its position for.”

Dr Mackey, also a UC science and law graduate, used the technique while dating Ice Age floods in Idaho and analysing waterfall retreat in Hawaii.

“I saw images of Shag Rock before and after the quakes and thought this would be a good technique to apply in Banks Peninsula. Hopefully the information we collect can then be built into hazard modules in the future.”

ends

Content Sourced from scoop.co.nz
Original url

PNG corruption watchdog reports back to Parliament. Photo: Post-Courier

Pacific Scoop:
Report – By Henry Yamo

Fifty two million kina (NZ$32 million) has been recovered by Papua New Guinea’s Task Force Sweep corruption watchdog and the government hopes to double that to more than K100 million in the next six months.

Chairman Sam Koim reported this to Prime Minister Peter O’Neill when winding up TFS operations investigating alleged corruption and mismanagement in the public sector.

The TFS was set by the National Executive Council to weed out corruption in the country.

The money reported to be recovered is believed to be part of the controversial K125 million ($76 million) loan reported by The National last June  to be taken from NASFUND, a leading state superannuation fund in the country purportedly for projects in the Kokopo District on behalf of the state.

According to reports in the PNG daily newspapers, the Post-Courier and The National, some assets and machinery bought under controversial Sovereign Community Infrastructure Treasury Bill (SCITB) arrangements had been seized.

The reports state that the PNG Central Bank has also frozen the balance of the funds to the tune of K55 million in National Capital Ltd’s bank accounts, which is to be paid over to the state.

National Capital Ltd was engaged by the former Treasurer, Patrick Puraitch, on 5 March 2010, when entering into an Investment Management Agreement with National Capital Limited.

Kokopo development
This agreement engaged National Capital Limited to be the issuing agent for K125 million of Treasury Bills, called Sovereign Community Infrastructure Treasury Bills, for financing water and infrastructure development in Kokopo.

However, in June, 2011 The National reported that this agreement and the eventual loan from NASFUND were claimed by the Central Bank to be illegal in a brief to government. to be illegal and placed contributors’ savings at considerable risk.

The brief revealed that the loan, obtained via a Treasury Department mechanism called the sovereign community infrastructure Treasury bill (SCITB), did not have approval from Parliament, cabinet, treasury and the Central Bank and was outside the national budget.

According to a Finance Ministers’ statement in Parliament on 9 August 2011, the State Solicitor provided legal advice against the deal in March 2010. This was further reinforced by former Attorney-General Sir Arnold Amet’s advice to then Prime Minister Sir Michael Somare early in 2011.

The advice then was that the isssuing the SCITB was unconstitutional and illegal because it did not comply with Section 209 of the Constitution and the Public Finances (Management) Act.

But a term sheet was prepared for investors containing the details of the SCITBs and signed by the former Minister for National Planning and District Development in March 2010

Despite all opposition the agreement was nevertheless witnessed and endorsed by the former Minister for National Planning and District Development Mr Paul Tiensten, according to reports tabled in Parliament.

Middlemen fees
The National’s report last June revealed that that middlemen, companies and individuals received K20 million in fees and commissions long before any project got off the ground in Kokopo.

The bulk of the fees from the K20 million, was said to have been paid to Malco, a company incorporated in 2008 and owed by a single proprietor, one Alan Waters.

Then Communications Minister, the late Patrick Tammur, appointed Malco on 27 November 22009, as the exclusive coordinator for fund raising, fund management and legal requirements for the CSITB.

TFS chairman Sam Koim. when presenting the report, said among those people tried, three prominent political leaders had been arrested and faced the National Court for their part in various corruption deals.

Former Minister for National Planning and District Development Paul Tiensten was arrested and charged among the three and is out on K5000 bail.

Henry Yamo is a postgraduate journalist from Papua New Guinea on the Master of Communication Studies programme at the Auckland University of Technology.

Three Houses Down and Spawnbreezie release new track South Auckland reggae band Three Houses Down has joined forces with one of the Pacific’s hottest international acts, reggae singer Spawnbreezie. The 10-piece band has been working hard in the studio …May, 15, 2012
For immediate release

Media Release:

Three Houses Down and Spawnbreezie release new track

South Auckland reggae band Three Houses Down has joined forces with one of the Pacific’s hottest international acts, reggae singer Spawnbreezie.

The 10-piece band has been working hard in the studio recording its latest hit, She’s My Woman, featuring none other than the American star, who is of Samoan descent.

Spawnbreezie, whose hits include Don’t Let Go, Nobody and If It’s You, is currently in New Zealand, where he has fast become popular with both young and old.

Fans can look forward to hearing some of Spawn’s own flavour in the jam, when he sings the chorus: “She’s my BFF, my everything. My teddy bear, my sweetest dream – she’s that morning coffee that I need.”

Three Houses Down, made up of Tongan and Samoan members, has become a popular force on the New Zealand reggae scene; making regular appearances at top reggae festivals Raggamuffin in Rotorua and at Parihaka.

The band has also played alongside reggae royalty throughout the years, including former UB40 frontman Ali Campbell. The band regularly tours and performs to crowds in Australia, Los Angeles, San Francisco, Las Vegas, Utah and Hawaii, where they have a particularly strong following.

She’s My Woman will be available on iTunes from Friday, May 18, 2012.

ends

Content Sourced from scoop.co.nz
Original url

Port Vila, Vanuatu, 13th May 2012 – There has been a call for sustainability and coordination of development resources in the education sector in the Pacific region as the 9th Forum Education Ministers’ Meeting (FEdMM) gets underway in Port Vila, …
Latest Press Statement
13 May 2012
Call For Sustainability In Pacific Education Sector

Press Release (48/12)
13th May 2012

Mr Feleti Teo, at the opening of the 9th FEdMM

Port Vila, Vanuatu, 13th May 2012 – There has been a call for sustainability and coordination of development resources in the education sector in the Pacific region as the 9th Forum Education Ministers’ Meeting (FEdMM) gets underway in Port Vila, Vanuatu.

The Prime Minister of Vanuatu, Hon. Sato Kilman Livtuvanu, MP opened the Meeting today in a ceremony featuring performances by school children of Port Vila and a speech to the Ministers by a 14-year old school boy.

In his statement at the opening ceremony, Deputy Secretary General of the Pacific Islands Forum Secretariat, Mr Feleti Teo said, “the Forum Education Ministers meeting is now a permanent feature of the schedule of Forum ministerial meetings we convene, and does provide a regular opportunity for Education Ministers of the region to come together and share their experience; share their common concerns; share their respective difficulties and development challenges in the exercise of their responsibilities as Education Ministers.”

“As a result of the work of Forum Education Ministers, the region now has a regional development strategy for the education sector in the form of the Pacific Education Development Framework, a framework that was adopted by Education Ministers at their meeting in Tonga in 2009,” said Forum Deputy Secretary General, Mr Teo.

The Framework’s underpinning philosophy is to nurture, develop and prepare all children in the region so that they are able to live life to the full; to be able to participate effectively in national developments; and to be able to maintain their traditional and cultural identities and to sustain them in the face of globalization.

The 9th FEdMM group photo with school children

Speaking on the theme of the 9th FEdMM, “Sustainable quality education – 2012 and beyond”, the Forum Secretariat Deputy Secretary General Mr Teo said this is a notion or principle that runs through the regional Education Development Framework.

“The theme for the meeting brings to the fore the strong notion and aspiration for sustainable development in the education sector. Though countries may aspire for and achieve the delivery of quality education services to their population, the greatest challenge is sustaining the standard and quality of those services,” said Mr Teo.

“And it is through sustainable quality education, that the region will fulfill the vision of Pacific Leaders under the Pacific Plan for a region of peace, harmony, security and economic prosperity, so that all of its people can lead free and worthwhile lives.”
Forum Deputy Secretary General Mr Teo also highlighted the need for resources to implement the regional development frameworks Education Ministers have constructed to guide their work.

“Substantial resources of course will be required. And therefore the issue of resources constraint presents itself. And it is here where we seek to fully utilize all available development resources, whether they exist internally through national resources or externally through development assistance from development partners and donors.

“The key is coordination. There must be effective coordination of the development resources of national governments and those provided by development partners to minimize the risk of duplication of efforts and wastage of resources. This must be at the forefront of the implementation of the education development framework,” said Mr Teo

He explained that the work the Forum Secretariat has undertaken under the auspices of the Forum Compact on Strengthening Development Coordination have provided useful support to member countries in enhancing the coordination of their development resources. Work continues in this area, and the focus of the work of the Forum Compact is expected to be narrowed on sectoral areas like the Education sector.

School children escorting Education Ministers to the opening of the 9th FEdMM

Mr Teo added: “At regional gatherings of this kind, we must always not lose sight of the reality. Whatever regional framework or regional initiative in the education sector, the test of their successes can only be gauged if those regional initiatives can be translated into practical and tangible benefits at the national level. And that is the challenge ahead for the Education Ministers in their deliberations over the next two days.”

“In the education sector, children must be the ultimate and primary beneficiary of regional and national efforts to deliver quality education services. For they are the leaders of tomorrow; and investing in education is investing in the quality of the leadership of tomorrow,” Mr Teo said.

During the two-day meeting, the Education Ministers will among other agenda items, receive an update on the implementation of the Pacific Education Development Framework and discuss the priorities for the education sector in the Pacific Plan beyond 2013.

ENDS

Content Sourced from scoop.co.nz
Original url

ACC scandal appears over with neither police nor PM expected to investigate further, Judith Collins yet to sue and nobody expected to be found to have leaked Boag emails.iPredict Weekly Newsletter: ACC Scandal Appears Over

ECONOMIC & POLITICAL NEWSLETTER

15 May 2012 FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE www.ipredict.co.nz https://twitter.com/ipredictnz https://www.facebook.com/iPredictNZ

Key Points:

 Greece to return to the polls before August

 European Fiscal Compact not to be ratified by year’s end

 Australia to become a republic by 2020; NZ unlikely to

follow

 John Wilson most likely to be next Fonterra Chairman

 Crafar Farm deal not expected to go unconditional until

September at the earliest

 ACC scandal appears over with neither police nor PM

expected to investigate further, Judith Collins yet to sue and

nobody expected to be found to have leaked Boag emails

 MMP threshold expected to be lowered to 4% but

Conservative Party still expected to miss out on seats

 Winston Peters to support National-led government in 2014

 MFAT cuts expected to be greater than 5%

 No Commission of Inquiry into Urewera raids

 Economic indicators remain bleak
International politics continues to darken

With only a 10% chance that the European Fiscal Compact will be ratified in its current form by all 12 contracting parties before the end of the year, the Eurozone crisis is deteriorating by the day.

The market’s estimate of the probability that at least one country will announce it will depart from the Eurozone before 1 January 2013 has increased 9 points since Friday and now stands at 48%. If any country does depart, early trading suggests that Greece is most likely with a 46% probability (up from 38% last week). Greece now has an 84% (up from 74% last week) probability of a new legislative election before 1 August 2012, with now just a 4% probability that a successful coup d’etat will occur before 1 August 2012.

In Germany, elections are expected to be held in Q4 of 2013, with the likely victor being the Social Democrats replacing Angela Mekel’s centre-right government.

Elsewhere in the world North Korean dictator Kim Jong-un looks safe until at least 2020, and there is a 48% chance that the Korean peninsula will remain nuclear-test and conflict free in 2012, there is only a 40% probability his regime will detonate an atomic device in 2012. a 35% chance that North Korea will carry out a border incident in 2012, a 5% chance that North Korea will bomb South Korea in 2012, likewise a 5% chance that North Korea will use nuclear weapons against South Korea in 2012, and just a 2% chance that North Korea will invade South Korea in 2012.

World growth expectations for 2012 have remained steady at 3.20%.

Australian politics scandal bad news for Labor

In Australia, Prime Minister Julia Gillard appears doomed even prior to the next election, despite the tax cut package in this week’s Budget. She is now expected to depart (62% probability) as the Labor leader before the next Federal election though she’ll stick it out to at least 1 July 2012. Liberal Party challenger Tony Abbott is expected to stay as leader of his party (63% probability). First preference expectations remain Labor 37.0%; Liberal 31.0%; Greens 11.9%; Queensland Liberal National 10%; Australian National 6.5% and Family First 4.7%. On a two-party preferred basis, the Coalition is forecast to win 51.7% of the vote and Labor 48.3%. Overall, the Coalition has an 83% probability of forming the next Federal Government.

Trading now indicates that the next Federal election will be in Q2 of 2013.

Future of the Monarchy

Catherine, Duchess of Cambridge is forecast to be expectant with an heir to the British, Canadian, Australian and New Zealand thrones in 2013, while Charles, Prince of Wales is expected to be New Zealand’s head of State by 2020. New Zealand is forecast to remain a monarchy, while Australia is expected to announce its intention of becoming a republic by 2020.

International Economics

Chinese growth expectations are now 1.98% for Q2 2012, 2.16% in Q3 2012, and 2.16% in Q4 2012.

There is a 40% probability the US Senate will formally approve a resolution of ratification of the Trans Pacific Partnership by July 2015

Early trading suggests the Australian economy will grow by 0.36% in the March 2012 quarter, 0.42% in June quarter, 0.42% in the September quarter, and 0.42% in the December quarter. Inflation is expected to be 1.55% for the March quarter, 2.05% in the June 2012 quarter, 2.00% in the September 2012 quarter and 2.05% in the December 2012 quarter, while unemployment forecasts are 5.11% for April 2012, 5.19% for May 2012 and 5.16% for June 2012. The country’s Cash Rate is not expected to be changed by the end of the year.

New Zealand Economics

The battle of the board for the chairmanship of New Zealand’s largest company, Fonterra, is set to take place in 2012, with John Wilson the most likely successor with a 48%. Colin Armer currently sits in second on a 34% probability, while incumbent Sir Henry Van Der Heyden is in third and has only a 6% chance. Trading today has seen a lift in John Monaghan’s changes, rising to 5%.

Forecast Fonterra payouts have remained broadly steady for the next four years with the payout now expected to be NZ$6.74 per kilogram of milk solids in 2011/12 (up 1c compared with last week), NZ$5.79 in 2012/13 (steady), NZ$7.28 in 2013/14 (steady), and remains steady at NZ$7.50 in 2014/15. New stock has been launched for the Fonterra payout in 2015/16, and iPredict will report on it once trading volumes have increased.
New Zealand growth prospects have deteriorated slightly this week with growth expected to be 0.3% for the March 2012 quarter (down from 0.4%), 0.6% for the June 2012 quarter (steady), 0.5% for the September 2012 quarter(steady) and 0.5% for the December 2012 quarter (steady).

Unemployment figures have remained unchanged this week, with unemployment expected to be 6.5% for the June 2012 quarter , 6.4% for the September 2012 quarter and 6.2% for the December 2012 quarter.

Inflationary expectations have remained unchanged over the past week. Inflation is forecast to be 1.3% for the June 2012 quarter, 1.4% for the September 2012 quarter, and 1.6% for the December 2012 quarter.

Petrol prices are expected to fall as 91 unleaded petrol is expected to cost $2.19 per litre at the end of May and $2.16 at the end of June.

Overall, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand is not expected to change the Official Cash Rate (OCR) this year but there is a growing probability of 37% that it will cut the OCR by year’s end.

Current account deficit expectations are 4.56% to March 2012, 5.05% in June 2012, 5.45% in September 2012, 5.88% to December 2012 and 5.96% to March 2013.

There is a 53% probability New Zealand and South Korea will sign a Free Trade Agreement before 1 December 2014.

Contracts have been extended out to December 2013 for GDP growth, unemployment, Inflation, and the current account deficit. Commentary on these stocks will be included as trading increases on the NZ Economics page.

International Politics

In the United States, Mitt Romney is now expected to win all remaining Republican Caucuses and Primaries, and has a 97% probability of being his party’s candidate for President. Barack Obama has a 99% probability of being the Democrat’s nominee.

On election day, the Democrats are expected to win California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, District of Columbia, Florida, Hawaii, Illinois, Iowa, Maine (state), Maine’s Congressional District 1, Maine’s Congressional District 2, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont, Washington, and Wisconsin.

The Republicans are expected to win Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, Georgia, Idaho, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska (state), Nebraska’s Congressional District 1, Nebraska’s Congressional District 2, Nebraska’s Congressional District 3, North Carolina, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Virginia, West Virginia, and Wyoming.

Across the country, the Democrats are expected to win 55% of the share of the Electoral College vote, and 52% of the popular vote, with the Republicans winning 45% of the Electoral College vote and 43% of the popular vote. President Obama has a 68% probability of being re-elected despite trading that suggests that the US Supreme Court will rule his signature health reform policy, the individual mandate, unconstitutional.

In China, Wen Jiabao is expected to remain Premier of the People’s Republic through to 1 January 2013. Yang Jiechi is expected to remain Minister of Foreign Affairs and Chen Deming to remain Commerce and Trade Minister. However, Zhou Xiaochuan is expected to be replaced as Governor of the People’s Bank of China by year’s end, as is Xie Xuren as Minister of Finance.

In the Middle East, Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad is expected to remain in power until at least 1 December 2012 while the probability Israel will launch an airstrike against Iran in 2012 is steady at 28%.

An indexed contract, currently offering trades from $0.59, asks how great the maximum 21st Century sea-level rise will be according to the next assessment report by the United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The market forecasts there is a 94% probability that the scenarios will be greater than 50cm, but only a 47% probability it will be greater than 55cm.

Other NZ Issues

Stocks have recently been launched forecasting the results of the NZ MMP Review. Early trading suggests that the proposal paper will recommend a party vote threshold of 4% will be required, against the current 5%. There is only 22% probability there will be a prohibition on dual candidacy of both the party list and the electorate seat, and a 37% probability the proposal paper will recommend list MPs should not be allowed to stand in by-elections.

New stock launched asks traders to forecasts who will be Trans Tasman’s CEO and Department of the Year. Early trading suggests that neither of iPredict’s shortlists will be selected, with “other” the most highly valued for both categories.

No Commission of Inquiry is expected into the 2007 police raids on suspected terror activities in the Urewera district.

John Banks is now looking secure as a Minister, and is not expected to be charged with an offence over the Dotcom scandal, however with a by-election now forecast in the Epsom electorate in 2012, Mr Banks’s political revival looks short lived.

After recent media speculation, the “split” purchasing age of alcohol looks likely to be introduced as a result of the upcoming Alcohol Reform Bill with 77% probability. Other options including increasing the age to 20, and maintaining it at 18 look unlikely at 19% and 8% respectively.

Pengxin Group’s bid for Crafar farms has been pushed back, and is not predicted to become unconditional before at least 25 August 2012, new stock has been launched forecasting to 29 September 2012.

SkyCity is now expected to be formally announced before 1 August 2012, traders predict the government to allow SkyCity to have 400 or more pokies.

iPredict also suggests that of the Bridgecorp directors not yet sentenced, Rob Roest, will receive 5 years, and Peter Steigrad 3 years 4 months sentances.

The ACC Scandal appears set to have run out of steam. iPredict correctly forecast that Minister Judith Collins would not file defamation proceedings against Trevor Mallard or Andrew Little by last Saturday. The market is now forecasting that whoever leaked the Boag email will not be found, that neither the PM or the police will launch an investigation into the scandal. Judith Collins is still expected to be a Minister. By 1 June 2012.

Efforts by the US Government to extradite Kim Dotcom from New Zealand are not expected to succeed until 2014 at the earliest, while the Swedish Government is also expected to face problems with extradition in its case against Wikileaks founder Julian Assange who is not expected to head for Sweden by July.

The market predicts that both an employee of the Ports of Auckland Ltd (other than Richard Pearson, Rob Campbell, Wayne Thompson or Tony Gibson) and a contractor working for the port will be found to have leaked Cecil Walker’s details to blogger Whaleoil.

Despite recent media, early trading suggests that a Bill imposing plain packaging on cigarettes will not be given Royal Assent by 1 January 2012, though it could be implemented by 2014.

Georgie Pie still looks no closer to being re-introduced in New Zealand. There is only a 24% probability it will be re-launched in New Zealand by Christmas 2012, a 34% probability that it will be re-launched by Christmas 2013 and a 43% probability it will be re-launched by Christmas 2014.

Excise duties are expected to be increased on tobacco in 2012/13, although the market now suggests that alcohol and petrol excise won’t be increased.

At MFAT, John Allen looks secure in his role with an 80% chance that he will stay on as CEO. However early trading on MFAT appropriations for 2012/13, suggests there could be cuts of more than 5.00%. Traders now believe that the New Zealand Police will experience cuts in their appropriations for the 2012/13 budget.

The Defence Force isn’t expected to announce an outsourcing of their payroll administration before 2013. The Auckland Council is no longer expected to add a new bin for glass collection, and the market doesn’t believe there will be an increase in the waste levy rate.

Detailed New Zealand Election Forecasts

Party vote forecasts for the next New Zealand General Election are unchanged this week: National 42.6% ; Labour 33.6%; Greens 10.0%; NZ First 5.1%; Conservative 3.1%; Act 1.5%; Maori Party 1.4%; Mana Party 1.3%; and UnitedFuture 0.9%. The Maori Party are expected to win two electorate seats, the Mana Party one seat, and neither Act nor UnitedFuture are expected to win any electorate seats.

Based on these results, Parliament would consist of: National 54 MPs; Labour 43 MPs; the Greens 13 MPs; New Zealand First 6 MPs; the Maori and the Mana Party 2 MPs each. There would be 120 MPs, requiring 61 to govern. The National Party would have 54 MPs while the Labour/Green/Mana partnership would have 58 MPs, making Winston Peters, with his 7 MPs the kingmaker in the next Government. With the market now expecting a National Prime Minister after the 2014 General Election, it appears Winston Peters will do a deal with National as the market forecasts that on balance, NZ First would use its position to support a National-led government.

Miscellaneous

iPredict is owned by Victoria University of Wellington. Details on the company and its stocks can be found at www.ipredict.co.nz. The weekly snapshot is taken at a random time each week. This week’s was taken on the morning of Tuesday 15 May.

ENDS

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There is no economic, social or environmental argument that justifies Pacific island nations rushing into experimental seabed mining say two of the regions leading NGOs.15 May, 2012

Economics of experimental seabed mining don’t add up for Pacific island countries

There is no economic, social or environmental argument that justifies Pacific island nations rushing into experimental seabed mining say two of the regions leading NGOs.

“The proposed mines are financially so small they will not generate enough funds to benefit Pacific people and the projected revenues do not justify risking the potential environmental impacts”, says Maureen Penjueli, Coordinator for the Pacific Network on Globalization, based in Fiji.

The worlds first experimental seabed mine, Solwara 1, which is due to start production in Papua New Guinea’s Bismark sea in 2014, will be tiny compared to traditional land based mines and will yield comparatively very little copper or gold.

While traditional mines commonly produce between 500 and 20,000 million tonnes of ore, the Solwara 1 mine will produce less than 3 million.

“This means there is no compelling economic argument for rushing the mine into production while scientific and environmental concerns remain, local people remain opposed and the necessary laws and regulations do not exist”, says Effrey Dademo, Program Manager for on-­line campaign organization ACT NOW!, based in Port Moresby.

According to Nautilus Minerals, owners of the Solwara 1, production from the mine will last less than 2 years and produce just 1.2 million tonnes of ore in year one and 1.8 million tonnes in year 2.

This is tiny In comparison to land-­based mines in PNG, many of which have had their own devastating environmental and social impacts. For example the notorious Ok Tedi mine processes over 20 million tonnes of ore every year and is still operating after 25 years and the controversial new Ramu nickel mine is projected to last over 20 years and will process 5 million tons of ore each year.

“Experimental seabed mining does not offer a get-­rich-­quick option for Pacific island countries and Pacific leaders should not allow foreign mining interests to walk all over the rights and interests of Pacific people”, says Ms Penjueli.

ENDS

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Parents in the Pacific region have been urged to send their children to school at the right age as this is a critical factor in the success of a child’s education. Professor Keith Lewin, from the Centre for International Education, at the University …9th FEdMM: Parents urged to send children to school at right age

Port Vila, Vanuatu, 14th May 2012 – Parents in the Pacific region have been urged to send their children to school at the right age as this is a critical factor in the success of a child’s education.

Professor Keith Lewin, from the Centre for International Education, at the University of Sussex, in the United Kingdom made the comments in his keynote address titled: “Making Right Realities – Access and Equity in Education and Development” at the 9th Forum Education Ministers’ Meeting being held in Port Vila, Vanuatu.

Professor Lewin revealed that over 60 million children of primary school age are not in school. Most are in sub -Saharan Africa (SSA) and South Asia. Many more are “silently excluded” by being enrolled but often absent, entering school over-age, repeating more than twice, and achieving at levels two or more the standards for their grade.

“Access to basic education lies at the heart of development. Lack of educational access, and securely acquired knowledge and skill, is both a part of the definition of poverty, and a means for its diminution,” said Professor Lewin.

Sustained access to meaningful learning that has utility is critical to long term improvements in productivity, the reduction of inter-generational cycles of poverty, demographic transition, preventive health care, the empowerment of women, and reductions in inequality.

The estimated numbers of children out of school in SSA have fallen from about 42-million in 1999 to about 29-million in 2009, and from 37 million to 18 million in South Asia. Despite this only about three-quarters of primary school age children in SSA are enrolled.

In many of the poorest countries more than half of all children fail to enrol at secondary level. Of those who do fewer than half will complete a full cycle of secondary schooling. The chances of the poorest 20% completing secondary school can be as little as a tenth that of the richest.

On average across both SSA and South Asia, for every 100 boys enrolled in the age range there are now 95 girls indicating that there has been much progress in equalising participation. But some countries are making slow progress towards gender equity and there are places where boys in school outnumber girls by 20%.

Professor Lewin indicated to the Forum Education Ministers that the commitments to Education For All should have resulted in a more equitable participation in education. The evidence is mixed but there are certainly countries where more are enrolled but relationships between household wealth and participation have strengthened and equity has deteriorated.

Despite the progress,“Sub-Saharan Africa remains by far the most undereducated part of the world despite allocating as much or more finance to education than other regions. In South Asia growing inequalities have accompanied economic development and led to very uneven access to education and continued marginalisation of the poorest,” said Professor Lewin.

A key issue in some countries is that children enter school late, and progress slowly so that they become over-age. Children over-age are disproportionately poor, lower scoring on tests, and more likely to drop out before completion. Over-age is especially damaging to girls chances of finishing primary school and progressing to secondary.

Professor Lewin highlighted the programme undertaken by the Consortium for Research on Educational Access, Transitions and Equity (CREATE) to analyse policy and practice designed to reduce educational exclusion and expand access to basic education for children between the ages of 5 and 15 years. This programme is implemented with many partners in Sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia, and China.

He revealed that the Consortium has developed a twelve point development programme that can be used as a framework for policy dialogue.

This action points includes such areas as:

• Improving early childhood health to reduce undernutrition, stunting, parasitic infections and avoidable causes of disability;
• Ensuring that all children enter school during their sixth year;
• Acting on the causes of dropout on both the supply and demand sides;
• Reducing “silent exclusion” associated with absenteeism, over-age enrolment, and low levels of achievement.
• Managing increased access to secondary schooling at affordable costs;
• Building adequate numbers of schools and classrooms with basic services; and
• Providing enough learning materials fit for purpose.

During their half day retreat the Forum Education Ministers discussed the issues of access, transitions and equity as raised by the keynote speaker and agreed that consideration could be given to conducting a similar programme in the Pacific region.

The publications of CREATE are available free at http://www.create-rpc.org

ENDS

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