Forecast – NIWA
The equatorial Pacific Ocean continues in a neutral state (neither El Nio nor La Nia). The recent cooler-than-normal sea-surface conditions (La Nia-like) in the eastern tropical Pacific have disappeared, but slightly warmer-than-normal sea-surface …NIWA Outlook: November-December-2013 & January-2014
The equatorial Pacific Ocean continues in a neutral state (neither El Niño nor La Niña).
The recent cooler-than-normal sea-surface conditions (La Niña-like) in the eastern tropical Pacific have disappeared, but slightly warmer-than-normal sea-surface temperatures persist west of the Dateline.
International guidance indicates that ENSO-neutral conditions are the most likely outcome for the next three months (November–January), and these are likely to persist into autumn 2014.
For the coming three months as a whole in the New Zealand region, lower pressures than normal are forecast in the Tasman Sea and across the North Island, and higher pressures than normal are expected to the south of the country. This circulation pattern is expected to produce disturbed northerly quarter flows over the north of the country, and slightly enhanced easterly flows over the South Island.
For November 2014, higher than normal pressures are expected to dominate over and around New Zealand, resulting in a marked change from the very disturbed westerly flow of October.
Sea surface temperatures are expected to remain near average overall for the coming three months around New Zealand, except for above average temperatures east of the North Island.
Temperatures over the November–January period as a whole are equally likely (40% chance) to be near average or above average in all regions of New Zealand, except for the west of the North Island and east of the South Island, where near average temperatures are the most likely outcome (45% chance).
The chances of below normal temperatures across all regions is about 20%.
Rainfall totals over the November–January period as a whole are most likely (45-50% chance) to be near normal in all regions except for the north and east of the North Island, where rainfall is equally likely (40% chance) to be near normal or above normal.
Soil moisture levels and river flows are most likely (45% chance) to be below normal in the north of the North Island, and most likely (50% chance) to be above normal in the east of the North Island, and likely to be near normal for all remaining regions.
Click here for the full summary, regional predictions.